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The Future

Protecting Italy’s Peaches in a Changing Climate | A Visual Essay

As temperatures rise in southern Europe, Italy - Europe’s largest peach producer - faces mounting climate change challenges that could threaten the future of the entire supply chain.

Before diving into this, let’s take a step back and explore how this delicate fruit made its journey from Asia to eventually conquer European orchards.

The journey to domesticate the peach tree

From the TikTok viral burrata peach salad to the classic Melba dessert, or even a soft, juicy peach on a hot summer day. There’s no doubting the notoriety and global popularity of the humble peach. Yet, despite its place as a familiar staple in the stone fruit family, the origin of the peach tree remains somewhat of a mystery. Recent studies suggest they may have originated in South-West China, but unlike its botanical cousins like almonds, apricots and plums, researchers have not yet reached a consensus on its original wild form.1

From what we know, peach trees initially made their way towards Europe from China as they were transported and traded along the infamous Silk Road to ancient Persia (now modern-day Iran).  From there, the Romans took the peach tree to Europe for cultivation, naming it Prunus persica. After the fall of the Roman Empire, Charlemagne promoted its spread in monastery gardens across his empire, stretching from Rome to Hamburg. And by the 16th century, different varieties of peaches were cultivated in the city orchards of Tuscany.

The prominent Italian Medici family took particular pride in enriching the diversity of the peach tree, acquiring cuttings of cultivars from European courts to grow in Florence’s Boboli Gardens.2 French varieties had also become common by then, and so were cultivation techniques, such as enclosed gardens. But, it wasn't until the early 20th century that peach production expanded internationally, with Emilia-Romagna, just north of Tuscany, emerging as a key region.

Left: Peach trees were pruned to fit as close as possible to walls, which created micro-climates thanks to sunlight accumulation and heat release, allowing early cultivars to fruit in Montreuil, Seine-Saint-Denis, France (Credits: Département de la Seine-Saint-Denis). Right: Peach harvest, Montreuil, 1912 (Credits: Jacques Boyer, Roger Viollet via Département de la Seine-Saint-Denis)

The rise of the Italian peach industry

The peach tree's adaptability and resilience made it an ideal choice for large-scale cultivation. This was especially true for the local Buco Incavato variety in the municipality of Massa Lombarda in Italy. In 1926, Massalombarda S.A. was founded; it was the first society dedicated to fruit transformation and juice production. That same year, Massa Lombarda’s peach production reached 800 tonnes annually, with the company exporting its products across Europe.3

From the experience of Massa Lombarda’s peach orchards, Italy created an innovative model for fruit cultivation and began exporting a variety of fruits internationally, including pears, oranges, and apples. The success was so great that the infant industry became a victim of its own success - soon finding itself contesting for profits in an increasingly competitive global market.

Left: Young Intensive Orchard. The trees are densely planted and intensively pruned to make them productive and easier to harvest. Romagna, 1927 (Credits: Agrarian Sciences). Right: Workers sorting through the harvest in the state-of-the-art infrastructure for international export (Credits: Succhi Yoga).

Declining biodiversity: from local to American varieties

The combination of falling demand during the economic crisis of 1929 and bumper harvest in supply caused fruit prices to fall, and the loss of stocks. As a result, local varieties gave way to a yellow-fleshed Californian variety known as Chinese Cling, which was more resilient to storage and long-distance transport. This variety was so widely adopted that Chinese Cling is believed to be the ancestor of the majority of modern cultivars. In the mid-1950s, the Buco Incavato already represented less than 1% of regional Italian production. Within 30 years, more than 80% of the genetic diversity of the local species was lost.4,5

Peach orchards, Romagna

Blossoming peach and apricot trees in Romagna, Italy. (Credits: Condifesa Ravenna)

Today, peaches are among the most widely cultivated summer fruits in Italy, with the country being the largest producer of peaches and nectarines in the Mediterranean basin. However, in recent decades, national production has steadily declined, threatening Romagna's flourishing economy— and the peaches of our summer meals. 

Peach production in the European Union

A silent threat: mild winters and spring frost

The Mediterranean region, with its mild winters and moderate summers, has historically been one of the most suitable areas in the world for peach cultivation. However, it has also been identified as a hotspot for climate change impacts, facing rising temperatures and an increased risk of extreme and unusual weather events.7 Droughts, floods and heatwaves are already visibly impacting a wide range of crops, but there’s a more silent and subtle phenomenon that is endangering Mediterranean fruit production - late spring frost. Late spring frost is when sub-zero temperatures strike in spring, just as trees have begun to sprout, posing a serious risk to budding fruit.

Left: Peach blossoms burnt by the frost, April 2021, Romagna, Italy. (Credits: Condifesa Ravenna) Right .Peach tree leaves colonised by a fungus called Taphrina deformans, also known as the peach leaf curl. (Credits: Condifesa Ravenna)

Since the early 1990s, fruit orchards in the Emilia-Romagna region have suffered severe and recurrent losses due to spring frost. As a result, national production of peaches and nectarines declined by almost 50% between 2006 and 2024, with the area under cultivation decreasing from about 93,000 hectares in 2006 to about 45,000 hectares in 2024.8

Peach production in Italy

How is it that fruit orchards are being threatened by frost in the context of global warming? Fruit species that grow in temperate climates, like almonds, apricots, and peaches, require precise temperatures in winter and spring to overcome dormancy - the period in which the plant metabolism is slowed down to preserve its energy.9 Once both the chill and heat requirements are fulfilled, bud bursts and blooming can occur. These two phases of dormancy vary from one cultivar to another, leading to early and late varieties. This means that winter and spring temperatures are crucial in determining where a certain species or certain cultivar can grow successfully during its natural season.

During winter, temperate fruit trees remain inactive until climatic conditions are adequate for it. Shots remain protected inside wooden buds, isolated from winter temperatures.

When temperature starts to rise, bud slowly swollen, exposing the delicate sprouts. At that stage, cold down to -3°C can damage the flowers before they even get the chance to blossom.

Once the flowering stage is reached, fragile parts of the plant become vulnerable. Temperatures under -2°C will provoque the petals to fall, damage the stamen and prevent the pollinisation.

But even once the flowers had been pollinised, a couple hours behind 0°C can be critical for the young fruit and threaten the whole annual production.

In Italy and other parts of Southern and Central Europe, warmer winters and spring will cause peach trees to blossom earlier in the year. This early bloom exposes buds and flowers to potential late spring frost, compromising the productivity of temperate cultivarsRecently, studies conducted in Italy’s Lazio region have shown that insufficient chill accumulation are already causing delayed and incomplete blossoming for most of the cultivars, compromising productivity.10 But so far, what has been done to counter the losses and safeguard Europe’s main production line?

Chill Portions are units calculated on chill hours and to mesure the Safe Winter Chill required for a specific ecosystem. In 1975, overall observed levels of Safe Winter Chill in the Mediterranean region ranged from 30 to 100 Chill Portions.

Betwen 1975 and 2019, many countries of the Mediterranean region have experienced considerable Chill Portions losses. Inland areas of Spain, Portugal, Greece and Turkey showed a reduction by about 20 CP. Similar values were observed in Tunisia, southern France and Italy.

Northern African and southern Europe may lose up to 30 Chill Portions by 2050 under a moderate warming scenario. For the future, experts foresee increasing risk of spring frostin early-blooming cultivars, exacerbated bloom-related problems and more frequent heat waves.

The need for long-term planning in European fruit production 

Unlike annual crops like vegetables and cereals, it takes many decades for fruit orchards to generate profit for farmers. In the face of a changing climate, this means farmers in temperate regions might be forced to abandon fruit production where it is no longer financially viable. However, there are also some strategies that farmers are adapting to help safeguard orchards against climate change. 

Anti-frost system

Antifrost security systems. Water is spread on the plant during critical cold periods, creating an ice crust. The temperature inside the crust naturally stabilises close to zero, preventing freezing and the formation of ice crystals inside plant cells, which would otherwise damage buds and blossoms. (Credits: Condifesa Ravenna) 

The Emilia-Romagna region launched an initiative called  'Protected Orchards' in 2024. The project, backed by a 70€ million investment, aims to use a variety of protective tools - such as hail nets, anti-frost blowers, and automated irrigation systems - to help establish 1,000 hectares of new fruit plantations and upgrade 4,000 hectares of existing ones by 2026.11

Perhaps more pressing is the need to identify resilient cultivars with strong climate adaptability, such as those with low-chill genotypes, which will be more suited to warmer environments. Projects, such as the Genetic Vegetal Resources (RGV) which conserves around 500 regional peach varieties and related wild species, may hold the answer to designing Europe’s orchards of the future.12

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