Food security in a changing climate: how extreme weather affects what we eat

Have you ever searched your local shops for olive oil, tomatoes, or other fruits and vegetables, but couldn't find them anywhere? When you do finally track down the item, the price is crazy. In recent years, this has happened more often. The cost of things like coffee, chocolate or oils can double within weeks – sadly, your boss hasn’t doubled your salary!

Sometimes these shocks to the food system are caused by global events like the COVID-19 pandemic or conflicts. Increasingly, though, extreme weather is also to blame.¹ Climate change is making droughts, floods and storms more frequent and more intense.² These events make it harder to grow the crops we rely on most: the cereals, grains and vegetables that become the bread, rice, pasta and cooking oils central to many of our meals.

Bit by bit these weather-related challenges are weakening European food security. As always, it’s the most vulnerable people who feel it the most.

What “food security” really means

We all need nutritious food to survive and thrive. But food security is about more than just having something to eat today – it’s about knowing there will be enough affordable, nutritious food tomorrow, next week and beyond.³ For a long time, Europe has enjoyed relatively strong food security. Until recently, maybe you rarely had any problems finding your favourite foods at reasonable prices.

Yet, there have always been people who have struggled to access healthy food. When events like wars suddenly disrupt the food system, those without a safety net are at highest risk. And when you can’t get the food you need, it can have a knock on effect on your daily life. Without nutritious food, it makes it harder to work, study, and deal with all the challenges that life throws at you.

Recent global events have put more people at risk of food insecurity. According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, around 8 percent of the world’s population faced hunger in 2024.⁴ That is a slight improvement on 2022 and 2023, but it is still hundreds of millions more than before the pandemic. 

An important point to remember is that food security isn’t just about how much food is produced. Despite all the challenges, farmers and agricultural scientists often find clever innovations to keep producing plenty of quality food. The problem is that this food doesn’t always reach everyone. Reasons include: 

• It’s too expensive
• A lack of nutritious foods in certain neighbourhoods
• Education and awareness
• Social exclusion

So, food security is about making sure everyone has access to healthy food, regardless of their personal situation and where they live. To make this happen, we need fairer food systems that are more resilient to shocks from bad weather and other challenges.

How extreme weather affects our food

Crops don’t like extremes, they can be fussy. Too hot, too dry, too wet, or too unpredictable – all of it makes farming harder. And with climate change, these extremes are becoming more common across Europe.

Too hot and too dry: heatwaves and droughts shrink harvests by stressing plants and drying up soils. Wheat, one of Europe’s most important crops, has already seen yields fall in countries like Spain and Germany during hot, dry years. Cows and other livestock also suffer in high heat: animals produce less, and their health declines.

Too wet or stormy: floods and storms can flatten crops in the field, wash away fertile soils, or cut off farmers from their land. Even when harvests survive, heavy rains can damage quality – grains become mouldy and fruit can be bruised. And storms often disrupt transport, delaying food on its way to markets.

Too unpredictable: shifting seasons leave farmers guessing. Imagine an apple grower in northern Italy whose trees flower early in March due to mild weather. Then an April frost destroys the blossoms before they can turn into fruit – leading to a much smaller crop in the summer. Inconsistent weather also confuses pollinators like bees, which are vital for crops such as olives and many vegetables.

Regional problems: Southern Europe is especially vulnerable to hot, dry conditions. Countries like Spain, Greece and Cyprus, which rely on crops like olives, grapes and wheat, face worsening droughts. In Spain, the price of olive oil jumped 125% between 2020 and 2024 due to a combination of droughts, higher energy costs, and higher interest rates.⁵ Olive producers face higher running costs and loan repayments for things like machinery, fertilisers, and packaging.

Work and storage issues: heat also affects farm work. Working in the field becomes slower (and more dangerous) in extreme heat. Lost time = lost money. As temperatures rise it can also affect food safety as it can be harder to keep fresh food cool, increasing the risk of food-borne diseases.⁶

What can we do? 

It’s easy to feel powerless when thinking about climate change and food. But there are practical solutions already on the table – from how we farm, what we buy, and how governments support the change to a more sustainable future.

Eat more seasonal and local food

One step is choosing food that’s in season locally. That’s the opposite of eating produce flown halfway across the world – strawberries in winter, for example. Local, seasonal fruit and veg often pack in more nutrients because they’ve spent less time in storage or transit. Plus, every time you buy from a farmers’ market, online veg box service, or local fruit shop, you’re supporting nearby growers and food businesses.

Reduce food waste

Then there’s food waste – the crazy reality that while some people go hungry, millions of tonnes of perfectly edible food end up in the bin. In Europe alone, it adds up to over 59 million tonnes a year.⁷ To help cut that waste: plan meals, get creative with leftovers, and don’t be put off by wonky veg. Shops and restaurants can also help by donating or repurposing the extra food that would otherwise be thrown out.

For more, see: Food waste: simple ways to waste less and save more.

Smarter farming practices

Farmers need support to cope with unpredictable weather. Many are adapting by using water resources more carefully during dry spells, or planting new crop varieties that can handle heat or pests. Some are also turning to regenerative farming – a simple idea with big potential.⁸ Through practices like rotating crops and leaving space for nature, farmers can protect harvests while improving the land for the future.

Better prepared politicians

To understand and prepare for food shocks, experts are even running “food crisis simulations.”⁹ These scenarios imagine what happens when political crises and extreme weather events strike at the same time in major food-producing regions. The findings are clear: Europe needs to be better prepared.

Global food supply challenges and how they affect Europe 

Climate change is a global issue, and some regions are particularly prone to acute food insecurity.¹⁰ In parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America, the weather is changing in ways that make farming extremely hard, affecting local ecosystems. When this happens in places that are already struggling with poverty or conflict, the problems get even worse. 

Because today’s food supply chains are so interconnected, these shocks can quickly ripple across the world. Coffee and cocoa are among the ingredients to have experienced price spikes in recent years linked to extreme temperatures. That has a knock on effect on the price of a latte and chocolate cake at your local cafe. 

Did you know? Ghana and the Ivory Coast produce nearly 60% of global cocoa. In February 2024, both countries experienced unusually high temperatures, which followed a long drought during the previous year. Cocoa crops were badly affected, causing global market prices to rise by around 300% by April 2024 compared to the previous year.¹¹

And the impacts of bad weather don’t stop at the farm gate. Flooding or extreme heat disrupt the storage, processing and transport of food across the world. All of which can add a premium to the price you pay at the checkout.

Who feels the impacts of food insecurity?

Extreme weather not only affects food prices. It is also putting pressure on our whole way of living. That is particularly true for farmers.

Put yourself in the shoes of a farmer. The tractors and fertilisers you rely on are becoming very expensive. Workers on your farm are asking for wage rises because they need to pay for their rising mortgages and spiralling food costs. At the same time, you are being pressured to meet stricter environmental standards – more learning, paperwork and costs. 

Then a month of torrential rain destroys your primary crop. For large farms, these losses can be painful but survivable. For small and family-run farms, however, a single lost harvest can be devastating.

When prices spike and supply chains are disrupted, shoppers also feel the impacts. Again, not everyone is hit equally. Wealthier households may respond by skipping a foreign holiday or brewing their morning coffee at home rather than buy it from a café. But millions of Europeans don’t have that flexibility. 

Let’s be clear, the most critical situations in the world are where people face extreme food shortages and the risk of famine. Clearly, those situations require urgent solutions, often with coordinated international action. 

But health problems linked with moderate food insecurity can still lead to poor health outcomes over time. When food becomes harder to afford, people often turn to cheaper, processed options. Over time, this can lead to higher risks of malnutrition, diabetes, heart disease, cancer and even mental health issues.

For more, see: Food for health: how diet can prevent disease.

Resilient futures, one plate at a time

Hopefully, you now see how extreme weather often interacts with other global challenges relating to our food.

Next time you’re caught in a sudden downpour or sweating through a heatwave, think about how this same weather influences what ends up on your plate. Climate change is making extreme weather more common, but that doesn’t mean we’re powerless. By eating more seasonal food, supporting local farmers, wasting less, and backing smarter farming, we can strengthen the system that feeds us all. 

Stronger food systems start with simple choices – and the best part is, they’re often the tastiest ones.